IEA projects 4,800 GW renewable capacity expansion through 2031

Global renewable power capacity is projected to expand by almost 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, according to the International Energy Agency's Renewables 2026 report published Friday. The expansion represents a 57 percent increase compared with the previous six-year period, with energy security replacing environmental concerns as the primary driver of deployment.

Emerging markets match advanced economies#

For the first time, emerging and developing economies outside China are forecast to add as much renewable power capacity as advanced economies through 2031. The IEA reports that emerging and developing economies outside China expanded at half the rate of advanced economies during 2020-2025, but energy security concerns, supportive policies and the growing competitiveness of wind and solar photovoltaic have raised the forecast for these markets by almost 20 percent compared with the agency's report a year ago. India is emerging as the world's second-largest growth market, with total renewable capacity expected to more than double by 2031. Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa are set to record significant acceleration in renewable deployment, with combined capacity additions forecast to almost triple during 2026-2031 compared with the previous six years.

Solar photovoltaic leads capacity additions#

Solar photovoltaic will account for more than three-quarters of global renewable capacity additions through 2031, the IEA projects, followed by onshore wind. Total global onshore wind capacity is set to increase by over 70 percent to 2,040 GW by 2031. China's share of global renewable capacity growth is projected to decline from more than 60 percent in 2025 to an average of 53 percent by 2031, reflecting changes in the country's renewable energy policies. The report highlights the growing contribution of households and small businesses to renewable energy expansion, with higher fuel prices and unreliable electricity supplies encouraging consumers in several markets to install rooftop solar photovoltaic systems.

Energy security drives policy shift#

The heightened focus on energy security worldwide is strengthening the case for renewable energy deployment at a faster pace than before, following disruptions to global energy markets since the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February 2026. The IEA's Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that energy security is now the main driver of renewables expansion as countries seek to reduce their exposure to imported fuels. The agency's World Energy Investment report from May 2026 outlined that the Middle East conflict was expected to make energy security a top priority among decision-makers, with effects felt most directly in the Middle East and Asia, which had been the destination for 80-90 percent of energy exports from Gulf producers. The conflict is fortifying a shift towards security, trust and diversity as key considerations when choosing energy projects and partners, alongside costs, prices and environmental performance.

Investment patterns reflect security priorities#

Global energy spending is projected to reach a record $3.4 trillion, with low-emissions technologies, nuclear, storage and grid expansions pulling in $2.2 trillion, while traditional oil, gas and coal command a $1.2 trillion allocation. The IEA has underlined a four-decade high in nuclear power construction alongside the broader investment wave, accelerating deployment toward grids, efficiency and storage. Renewable electricity saved India more than $100 billion in coal and natural gas import costs between 2011 and 2025, according to the IEA's India Renewable Energy Market Report 2026, with cumulative savings expected to more than double by 2030. Without the solar photovoltaic, wind and bioenergy capacity added since 2010, India's coal imports in 2025 would have been around 110 million tonnes higher, the agency reports.