World Bank Raises Saudi 2027 GDP Growth Forecast to 7.9 Percent
Projection revised upward 3 percentage points from April, though below Ministry of Finance's 12.8 percent budget estimate.
The World Bank raised its Saudi Arabia GDP growth forecast for 2027 to 7.9 percent, an upward revision of 3 percentage points from the 4.9 percent growth figure the institution published in April, according to the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Economic update published October 7, 2026. The Ministry of Finance's 2027 budget statement anticipated real GDP growth of 12.8 percent for the same year.
2026 Outlook Revised Downward#
The World Bank lowered its 2026 forecast for Saudi Arabia, now expecting real GDP to contract by 2 percent, a shift from the 3.1 percent growth the institution had forecast in April, representing a 5.1 percentage point difference between the two projections. The Ministry of Finance projected a 3.6 percent decline for 2026 in its budget statement. The bank published both the revised 2026 figure and the updated 2027 projection in its October 7 regional economic update.
Infrastructure and Export Routing#
Saudi Arabia has benefited from the East-West pipeline, which enabled the country to redirect exports to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, the World Bank stated in its update. The bank noted that shipping lane impact, damage to energy infrastructure, and the ability to redirect exports were factors it assessed in the regional outlook. The institution did not specify the timeframe over which the pipeline routing advantage was measured.
GCC Regional Projection#
The World Bank forecast that the Gulf Cooperation Council countries will see GDP contract by 4.3 percent in 2026, with the institution citing declines in hydrocarbon production and exports after the Strait of Hormuz closure, alongside effects on the tourism, logistics, and aviation sectors. The bank's update covered six GCC member states without breaking out individual country figures beyond Saudi Arabia. The 4.3 percent contraction figure appeared in the same October 7 document that carried the Saudi-specific projections.
Forecast Comparison and Basis#
The World Bank's 7.9 percent growth projection for Saudi Arabia in 2027 stands below the Ministry of Finance's 12.8 percent estimate published in the 2027 budget statement. The bank's April 2026 forecast for 2027 had stood at 4.9 percent, making the October revision a 3 percentage point increase. The institution published its updated projections in its Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Economic update dated October 7, 2026.
Sources1 source across 1 domain
- saudigazette.com.saSaudi GazetteWorld Bank 2027 Saudi GDP forecast of 7.9 percent, up 3 points from April; 2026 forecast revised to 2 percent contraction; Ministry of Finance 2027 projection of 12.8 percent; GCC 2026 contraction of 4.3 percent; East-West pipeline export routing
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